It’s no mystery, Cody Bellinger is one of the best active players on the Dodgers’ roster as well as in the entire MLB. What the “Kid” has already accomplished so far this season is not just good – it’s historic. On Tuesday night Cody Bellinger became the first player in MLB history to hit 22 home runs in his first 52 major league games. He has also hit 10 home runs within a 10 game period – the first rookie to ever accomplish the feat. And while we’re on the topic of home runs, “Belly” now has five multiple home run games this season, which makes him the first player ever to do so in less than 80 games played. That’s one multi-HR game in every 10.4 games he plays. Wow.
Despite his fantastic start, many are beginning to wonder: Can Bellinger keep up this pace?
Statistics show that Cody has a home run percentage of 9.91% per at-bat and, if he was to keep up this record-setting pace, he would hit 68 home runs in a regular 162 game season (60 home runs this season since he played the first 20 games in AAA). That’s eight more home runs than Babe Ruth hit in 1927 (60), seven more home runs than Roger Maris hit in 1961 (61), two less than Mark McGwire hit in 1998 (70) and only five less than Barry Bonds hit in 2001 (73) – ALL of them MLB home run records. He would also shatter the Dodgers rookie home run record set by Mike Piazza in 1993 (35) as well as Mark McGwire’s MLB rookie record set in 1987 (49). Which leads us to another question…
How does Cody Bellinger compare to Mike Piazza’s rookie season?
When looking at past Dodgers rookies one name in particular comes to mind: Mike Piazza. Despite making his MLB debut in 1992, the 24-year-old catcher played in 149 games in 1993 and finished the season hitting .318/.370/.561 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with 35 home runs, 112 RBI’s and 81 runs scored – good enough to earn him the 1993 “Rookie of the Year.” Cody, however, has only played in 53 games this season so let’s take a look at Bellinger’s and Piazza’s first 53 games:
Cody Bellinger (200 AB’s): .270/.341/.665, 22 HR’s, 49 RBI’s and 41 runs
Mike Piazza (197 AB’s): .335/.379/.538, 10 HR’s, 36 RBI’s, and 26 runs
From the statistics it clearly shows that, so far, Bellinger has Piazza beat in every category except batting average and on-base percentage. It also shows that, barring any unforeseen injuries, Bellinger will undoubtedly beat Piazza’s franchise rookie HR record. Which leads us to the final question…
Would hitting the most home runs guarantee Bellinger to be the greatest Dodger rookie of all time?
Fans love watching players hit home runs: the crack of the bat, the ball soaring into the stands and the player rounding the bases all make for great baseball and great fun; however, despite being the most exciting, hitting home runs should not be the only stat that one looks at when deciding a player’s value to the team. Here is how Bellinger compares to past Dodger offensive ROY’s since the award was first given in 1940:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Cody Bellinger (2017): .270/.341/.665, 22 HR’s, 49 RBI’s and 41 runs
Corey Seager (2016): .308/.365/.512, 26 HR’s, 72 RBI’s and 105 runs
Todd Hollandsworth (1996): .291/.348/.437, 12 HR’s, 59 RBI’s and 64 runs
Raul Mondesi (1994*): .306/.333/.516, 16 HR’s, 56 RBI’s and 63 runs
Mike Piazza (1993): .318/.370/.561, 35 HR’s, 112 RBI’s and 81 runs
Eric Karros (1992): .257/.304/.426, 20 HR’s, 88 RBI’s and 63 runs
Steve Sax (1982): .282/.335/.359, 4 HR’s, 47 RBI’s and 88 runs
Ted Sizemore (1969): .271/.328/.342, 4 HR’s, 46 RBI’s and 69 runs
Jim Lefebvre (1965): .250/.337/.369, 12 HR’s, 69 RBI’s and 57 runs
Frank Howard (1960): .268/.320/.464, 23 HR’s, 77 RBI’s and 54 runs
BROOKLYN DODGERS
Jim Gilliam (1953): .278/.383/.415, 6 HR’s, 63 RBI’s, and 125 runs (*21 SB’s)
Jackie Robinson (1947): .297/.383/.427, 12 HR’s, 48 RBI’s and 125 runs (*29 SB’s)
The game of baseball has changed a lot over the years and so has stat significance. The home run is more common than it was in years past but that could be because current players are simply better hitters than their former counterparts. It is also true that, due to the mental aspect of the game, players hit slumps. Bellinger has yet to slump this season but, even if he does, there are 89 games left to be played. He could have a mediocre second half of the season and will still likely be the next ROY (possibly a co-ROY with Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees). No matter which way you slice it, by the end of the season Cody Bellinger will be considered as one of if not the best offensive Dodger rookies of all time.
BakoBoyInBlue
*The 1994 season ended on August 11th due a players’ strike.
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